How Somalia can turn its coastline into a gateway to East African markets

OPINION  |  By Anas Ali Dahir, MAPPM

Executive Director, East Africa Association for Research and Development (DAD) | University Lecturer

Somalia has one of Africa’s longest coastlines and ports facing important maritime routes. But a coastline does not guarantee cargo, and a modern quay does not automatically create a regional gateway. A port becomes part of a trade corridor when it connects reliably to roads, transport services, storage, border procedures and customers inland. The test is whether a shipment reaches its market at a predictable time and competitive total cost.¹

Somalia became a full member of the East African Community (EAC) on 4 March 2024. Its ports could offer additional options for regional trade, including trade with neighbouring Kenya. Yet EAC membership alone will not draw cargo away from routes served by Mombasa or Dar es Salaam. Those ports connect to transport networks and commercial relationships developed over decades. Somalia must compete on the whole inland journey, including its security, reliability and price.²

The missing link between quay and customer

A port is a place where cargo arrives. A corridor is the wider system that takes it to a final market and brings traffic back. It requires dependable roads and bridges, vehicles, fuel, storage, communications, repair services, insurance and border coordination. A failed link can erase the advantage of a well-placed port.

The scale of Somalia’s road challenge is clear, though the often-cited figures are historical estimates. In 2022 the World Bank reported a road network of approximately 21,830 kilometres, of which an estimated 2,860 kilometres—about 13%—were paved. It said most of the paved network was believed to be in poor or very poor condition and reported that only 31.2% of the rural population had access to an all-season road. These figures establish the starting challenge; they should not be presented as a fresh 2026 road survey.³

Investment is under way to improve planning and access. In 2022 the World Bank approved a US$58 million grant for the Somalia Horn of Africa Infrastructure Integration Project, designed to prepare a pipeline of transport investments and strengthen the capacity to plan and manage them. An April 2026 appraisal document separately set out US$160 million in proposed financing for the first phase of an infrastructure access and jobs programme. That broader proposal includes several kinds of resilient infrastructure and institutional work; the US$160 million should not be described as money committed solely to a port corridor.³ ⁴

The danger of building assets without traffic

A government can enlarge a port and pave a road, then discover that traffic is too thin to sustain operations and maintenance. A truck that delivers imports inland and returns empty must recover the cost of both legs from one paying load. This backhaul problem can make an apparently short route expensive. The corridor must therefore attract cargo in both directions, not simply move imports away from the quay.

Spreading scarce resources over several incomplete routes creates another risk. Ports can serve different markets without being forced into identical roles. Mogadishu has a large domestic consumer and business market; Kismayo has potential links to southern production areas and Kenya; Bosaso has established maritime links across the Gulf of Aden. These are starting hypotheses for commercial analysis, not proof that any particular corridor will be viable. Demand, transport cost and dependable access must decide where investment comes first.

Prove one route before promising a network

Somalia should select a pilot corridor through an independent feasibility assessment. A Kismayo–Dhobley–Kenya route warrants investigation because it would connect a Somali port to an EAC partner. That does not make it the automatic winner. A credible study must compare it with other routes using origin-and-destination data, seasonal freight volumes, port-to-market times, security and insurance costs, road condition, border procedures and the likelihood of return loads.

If another route offers stronger demand and lower total cost, the evidence should prevail. The goal is a dependable weekly service for farmers, transporters, importers and other users—not a corridor name on a map.

Six decisions that make a corridor viable

1. Measure the market. Survey existing and potential cargo in each direction, major customers, seasonal variation, competing routes and realistic return-load opportunities.
2. Fund the road as a service. Link construction or rehabilitation to maintenance financing and measurable standards for year-round truck access.
3. Agree cross-border operations. Work with Kenya on customs coordination, transport rules, insurance, safety, incident response and traffic-data exchange.
4. Build useful logistics nodes. Place storage, secure truck stops, consolidation space, fuel, repairs and communications where freight demand supports them.
5. Match finance to risk. Use public funding for essential shared infrastructure and invite private investment in services where demand is credible, without imposing charges that make the route uncompetitive.
6. Make performance public. Give national and state authorities, port operators, carriers and communities a role in reviewing monthly results and resolving failures.

Measure before celebrating

A corridor’s success cannot be judged by kilometres paved or construction contracts signed. Publish a baseline and track port-to-market time, cost per tonne-kilometre, truck turnaround, the share of empty return journeys, days when the road is impassable, crashes, cargo losses and businesses created along the route. Compare these indicators with competing routes and update them regularly. This would allow citizens, financiers and traders to see whether the investment is creating commerce or merely adding an asset that will be difficult to maintain.

From coastline to connected economy

Somalia’s investment promotion agency presents the country’s geography and ports as a basis for becoming a regional transshipment and trade gateway. That is an ambition, not yet evidence of a competitive inland route. Customers choose a corridor because it delivers cargo at a known time and a price they can plan around.⁵

Somalia’s logistics future will depend less on how many ports it promotes than on whether it can demonstrate a corridor that works and then apply the lessons elsewhere. When cargo moves reliably from ship to market, trucks find paying return loads and the road has a funded maintenance plan, the coastline becomes a stronger economic asset. Until then, a port remains a gateway to the sea—not necessarily a gateway to East African markets.